Guest editorial: As much force as is necessary

It turns out that some of us are.

Although guerrilla activity is on the rise, the Pentagon has announced plans to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq from 132,000 -- already down 30,000 from summer -- to 105,000 next May.

It's a fair question, given the situation in Iraq, whether this decision isn't premature.

If the Pentagon has evidence that the level of violence and assaults on U.S. troops will start falling next year, it hasn't shared that information with the public.

Opinion among supporters of the war outside the administration is that the number of forces there should be greater, not lesser. The president and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld say that if the commanders in Iraq feel they need more troops, all they have to do is ask. But clearly those commanders are under pressure not to ask.

The administration is counting on Iraqi security forces to fill the gap left by U.S. troops, but it's far from a foregone conclusion that the hastily recruited and hurriedly trained Iraqi police, border guards and military are capable of that task.

The troop reduction will also be accompanied by a troop rotation, with long-serving units being withdrawn to be replaced by fresh troops with large reserve and National Guard components. It's hard to begrudge giving the forces there now relief from hot, monotonous and hazardous duty, but again it's fair to ask what we're giving up in terms of hard won local expertise and connections.

The Pentagon insists that the troop reduction was not affected by political considerations. It's hard to believe the decision was wholly unaffected by politics. In the face of near-daily American deaths, Bush has been under great pressure to show progress of some sort, to demonstrate to the public that our commitment to Iraq is not endless. Being able to point to troop reductions would help.

And then there is another group paying intense attention to our force levels -- the terrorists themselves, the die-hard remnants of Saddam's regime and the Baath party and their foreign allies. It is vital to their long-term goals that when the United States finally does leave Iraq, it appears to the world as if we were driven out by force. The troop reductions could be interpreted as a sign of wavering resolve, giving the terrorists fresh hope and more incentive for attacking those who remain.

We may not be leaving in the sense that we're getting ready to cut and run, but it does appear as if we're beginning to edge toward the door.