Lee school district believes size will double in 20 years

Its enrollment will be larger than the size of 43 Florida counties as noted in the 2000 U.S. Census.

Its budget easily will top $2 billion, and could even reach $3 billion.

Lee County school officials are trying to forecast their needs over the next two decades, and the list thus far is staggering: 97 new schools, $3.3 billion in construction dollars alone and a work force that could surpass 25,000 employees.

The Florida Department of Education is requiring all school districts to submit an enrollment forecast through the 2022-23 school year, a long-range plan that is expected to help the state address future funding concerns.

Mike Smith, program evaluator for School Choice, said a group of administrators will analyze the impacts of the pre-kindergarten and class-size reduction amendments, a new fast track program that lets high schoolers graduate a year early, strategies to keep potential dropouts in school, the influence of charter schools, proposed housing developments and other factors that impact student enrollment.

"We're going to start working on that Monday," Smith said.

Lee County recently submitted another long-term projection to the state, a 19-page document that forecasts the district's facilities needs through 2023. That report estimated the student population at 158,742 two decades from now -- larger than Fort Lauderdale's 2000 Census population of about 153,000.

Lee's current student enrollment is about 65,500.

Smith said the facilities projection probably is lower than the figure administrators are developing because their numbers will include special programs and the rise of charter schools, areas not factored into estimates used for construction purposes.

Two decades ago, Lee County educated 30,148 students in about half as many schools as it has today. The district grew at a steady rate during the 1980s and 1990s, and school officials don't see a reason that Lee County's housing boom will slow anytime soon.

"Based on the last 20 years, we can predict the next 20 years," Superintendent James Browder said. "The data we'll get will be right on target."

The district has launched a land-buying campaign to stockpile property for future use, ensuring there will be enough large parcels for new schools. But efforts to find school locations are taking a different turn as planners evaluate vacant warehouses and storefronts for potential remodeling projects.

"We don't necessarily need to have property without buildings already there," board member Steven Teuber said. "Just building typical schools might not be the solution."

Last month, School Board members gave approval to three architectural firms -- one each for elementary, middle and high -- to design prototypes for all future standard construction. The board agreed to spend an extra $1.25 million to purchase blueprints and architectural copyrights, thus avoiding design costs every time the district needs to build a new school.

"We're in a high-growth area, and I don't see that ending anytime soon," Spring Creek Elementary Principal Karen Leonardi said. "We've got to be proactive."

Another concern with continued growth is finding enough teachers to staff all of the new classrooms.

The school district and Teachers Association of Lee County negotiated a new salary scale that puts first-year teachers at $30,073 for the 2003-04 school year, with veteran instructors maxing out their pay at $50,833 for those with bachelor's degrees.

That range puts Lee County's teacher salaries among the top 20 percent of Florida districts, a fact that recruiters hope to capitalize on while hiring several hundred new teachers each year.