Analysis: The gay issue

All of the candidates were forced to address the issue, but Dean probably has the most to lose by its rising profile since he is the only candidate who has signed legislation allowing gay couples to legally unite. Most American do not support gay marriage, especially in the South, where a Northeasterner like Dean faces an uphill battle in the best of circumstances.

"It's going to be on the front burner," said Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition of America, a group that seeks an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would define marriage as a union between a man and a woman. "

According to a mid-October survey by the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press and the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, 59 percent of Americans said they oppose legalizing gay marriage, but only a small group -- about 10 percent -- felt the Constitution should be amended to ban it.

Opposition to gay marriage is strongest among older Americans, the most reliable group of voters. There is also more opposition among adults over 30 who do not have a college degree than those that do, and among men, groups that have been migrating to the Republican Party in the South for decades. Sixty-seven percent of Southerners oppose gay marriage, according to the Pew poll, compared to 50 percent of Easterners.

Across the country, nearly three-quarters of state legislatures have adopted laws or constitutional provisions defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman. And there was overwhelming support from both parties in Congress for the 1996 federal Defense of Marriage Act, which allows states to refuse to recognize gay marriages performed in other states. The act was signed into law by Democratic President Bill Clinton.

After the Massachusetts ruling last week, all of the major Democratic candidates quickly highlighted carefully crafted positions intended to reassure liberals while not alienating moderates. Most support equal rights for gay couples under the law, in the form of some type of civil union, but say they believe marriage should be defined as only between a man and a woman -- a position that some on both sides of the issue consider a dodge.

Even Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, whose daughter, Chrissy Gephardt, is openly gay and talks about her support for gay marriage at campaign stops, seemed uneasy answering questions about the Massachusetts ruling.

"I think the answer is civil unions," he said repeatedly when pressed about whether he supported gay marriage after an AARP debate in New Hampshire. "Chrissy and I disagree on this ... but this is what I believe and this is what I would do as president."

President Bush reiterated that he would "work with congressional leaders and others to do what is legally necessary to defend the sanctity of marriage," but stopped short of saying he supported a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, is widely reported as interested in using gay rights as a "wedge" issue in 2004 to pry moderates away from the Democrats, but other Republicans are worried about scaring off moderates.