Holiday shopping starts early today

But early birds shouldn't expect to get the big discounts they found last year. As the economy strengthens, retailers aren't depending on incentives to draw customers, but the next weeks remain a crucial sales time.

Most shops in Coastland Center mall in Naples aren't opening their doors until 8 a.m. A couple of stores are getting a head start. Department stores Burdines, J.C. Penney and Sears open at 6 a.m., but Kay Bee Toys opens at 5 a.m.

Toys "R" Us opens at 5:30 a.m., while Wal-Mart and Target open at 6 a.m. Edison Mall in Fort Myers opens at 7 a.m. Prime Outlets on Collier Boulevard near Marco Island and Miromar Outlets in Estero open at 8 a.m.

"You're so pumped up," said Tom DeTouw, store manager of the North Naples Wal-Mart. "It's so much fun you tend not to realize (the exhaustion) until you hit that lull in the afternoon."

DeTouw's store will see twice as many customers and twice as many sales today. To prepare, a special workforce came in at 8 p.m. Wednesday and worked through the night. And today, all 245 employees are there working.

If you're an early bird, this isn't the only day to get shopping done in the morning. Many stores alter their hours during the holiday season.

As holiday shopping starts in earnest today amid an improving economy, many of the nation's retailers -- particularly department stores and apparel merchants -- plan to be stingier with markdowns than in past holiday seasons. They're counting on consumers to be so pleased with new services and exclusive merchandise that they'll be willing to pay full price.

Many retailers are hoping to wean shoppers away from the heavy discounts of the past, but some analysts question whether the strategy will work. Consumers have gotten used to putting off their shopping while they wait for prices to fall, and they may well force retailers to take heavy markdowns as the season progresses.

ShopperTrak's National Retail Sales Estimate reported Tuesday that retailers remain cautiously optimistic about holiday sales. Families plan to spend a little more than last year's average of $675, Wachovia Corp. senior economist Mark Vitner said.

Lower prices and recent tax cuts could spur more spending. Vitner predicts a 7 percent increase in sales. If that happens, 2003 will be the strongest holiday season since 1999.

Florida job and population growth means that the state could experience some of the strongest gains. The east coast should experience 8 percent sales growth, Vitner said, while the west coast will see 7.5 percent growth.

"This is definitely a high stakes Christmas," said John Morris, an analyst at Harris Nesbitt Gerard, estimating there were 10 percent fewer markdowns going into the start of the season than there were a year ago at the 25 apparel chains he follows. That's the first decline since 1998.

"Retailers are trying to lure the consumer with fewer discounts, but how strong will consumers be? We're moving away from a period of uncertainty, and consumers are feeling a little bit better, but they are still tentative," he added.

Clearly, retailers are more optimistic than in the past few years. In 2002, uncertainty over the prospect of war in Iraq and a spate of corporate layoffs weighed heavily on consumers. This year, the economy is on the rebound, with employment improving. Consumer confidence is also improving.

Still, after a strong summer, retail sales have been uneven the past few weeks, hurt in part by warm weather that has made winter apparel less appealing, according to Michael Niemira, vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.

In fact, stores worried about the sales pace are entering the season with inventories that average 7 percent below last year's levels, according to Marshal Cohen, senior industry analyst at NPD Inc., a market research firm in Port Washington, N.Y.

Many problems still plague the industry. Deflation, or a drop in prices, has been an issue for some retailers, such as toy and electronics merchants. And while the labor market is improving, the unemployment rate is still at 6 percent.

Niemira forecasts a sales gain of 4.5 percent for the November-December period, the best performance since 1999, when the tally rose 5.4 percent. He based the estimate on sales from stores open at least a year, considered the best indicator of a retailer's health.

The Washington-based National Retail Federation projects total holiday sales to rise 5.7 percent to $217.4 billion.

The holiday shopping season is an important time for retail stores. Almost 30 percent of retail business occurs in the weeks leading up to Christmas, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Malls do 25.7 percent of their business during November and December.

And while Thanksgiving weekend is the kick-off to the season, most sales are made in the week before Christmas, according to the Council.

Toys remain the top gift, Vitner said.

Clothing, household items and electronics are also popular. Hot items include the new Elmo doll and anything digital, he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tips for safe holidays

In stores:

- Guard your purse or wallet at all times. Never leave them unattended.

- Do not carry large amounts of cash. Keep the cash you do have hidden from view whenever possible.

- Keep your credit cards in sight. Allowing people to take your card to another location enables it to be "skimmed" for account information.

- Take packages to the car often. Trying to carry too many packages blocks your view, keeps you off balance and limits your ability to react.

- Women should carry money in their pockets or keep their purses in front of their bodies, not at their sides.

- Let people know where you are going and how long you will remain there.

On the Internet:

- Use companies with "secure servers."

- Use companies that are well-known and reputable. Stay away from companies that cannot be researched and verified as "safe."

- Avoid giving credit card or account information to a company that has made unsolicited contact with you.

In your car:

- Do not approach your car if there are other people in the immediate area.

- Have your key out and ready. This will limit the time you are most vulnerable when you are entering the car or putting packages into the car.

- Keep valuables and merchandise you have purchased in the trunk or other secure area out of view of those passing by the car.

- Park in well-lit areas.

- Shoppers taking packages to their cars and returning to a shopping center should move their cars so they appear to be leaving.

At home:

- Do not place wrapped gifts in front of windows.

- Make your home appear occupied when you're away.

Sources: Collier County Sheriff's Office, Daily News file