A peek inside the hurricane ‘nerve center’

MIAMI — Reprinted from the April 8, 2006 Daily News

It's easy to miss the National Hurricane Center when you're driving through the Florida International University campus.

The building, right next to the campus baseball stadium, could be a restaurant, a classroom building or a maintenance center. The only thing that stands out about this building is the multiple satellite dishes on the roof.

But inside this modest building sits the brain and nerve center for monitoring hurricane activity.

Presidents, prime ministers, dictators, governors and local emergency management officials all rely on the Hurricane Center to tell them what's happening when there is a storm in the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.

"We work with 25 other countries within our region," center spokesman Frank Lepore said. "We'll gather information from them and then send forecasts back to them."

Even Cuba sends the Hurricane Center information, and asks for forecasts in return.

"They don't have to listen to (us)," Lepore said. "But when you tell them a 17-foot wall of water is heading their way, they tend to listen."

The Daily News toured the facility and met some of the key personnel on site.

Statistically, 2006 is unlikely to have as many hurricanes as 2005, but it still is expected to be a busy year. Hurricane Center officials called 2005 an unforgettable and historic year — and when a hurricane specialist calls a year historic, that's not good.

There was no tension at the hurricane center this week. Employees milled about in short-sleeve shirts looking at satellite imagery, working on weekly forecasts and chatting with visitors.

That relaxed atmosphere will change when hurricane season officially begins June 1.

When a hurricane forms, the Hurricane Center monitors it and maps out every possible scenario where the storm could go over the next five days.

All of those scenarios exist in what is usually called the zone of uncertainty.

"It lets people know they need to pay attention (if they're in the zone)," Lepore said.

With hurricane season less than two months away, the center is focused on education efforts; they worry many people still don't have a hurricane plan in place.

"There are still a lot of people in Florida who don't take hurricane preparations very seriously," said Rick Knabb, a hurricane specialist at the center. "There's still a lot of education to do."

Some people who live in areas that haven't sustained a direct hit in the past few years seem to assume it will never happen to them.

That is a dangerous assumption to make, Knabb said.

Hurricane Center officials also are getting ready to make general predictions for the 2006 season. Those should be coming out within the next month.

The center has seen an increase in hurricanes since 1995. That upturn reached a breaking point in 2005 with the most named storms in a year — 27.

"It was a hurricane season that started early and ended late (in 2005)," said Knabb. "So many storms formed close to the United States."

Usually, the majority of storms form off the coast of Africa, but that didn't happen in 2005, Knabb said.

"(Hurricane) Wilma was the storm that affected us in Southwest Florida the most directly," Knabb said, referring to the storm that made landfall in southern Collier County and ended up doing damage throughout the southern part of the state.

"It created an additional challenge in putting out our forecasts when we are directly threatened."

Statistically, it's hard to imagine this hurricane season with as many storms. But fewer storms doesn't lessen the danger, Knabb said.

"Even if we end up predicting 2006 will be a below-average year, it doesn't mean there won't be strong hurricanes," he said.

"Hurricane Andrew was devastating, and it hit during a time when you saw a downturn in the number of hurricanes (that formed each year)."

Knabb wryly notes that what he just said is purely hypothetical. He has seen nothing that makes him believe 2006 will be a below-average year, and predicts another five to 10 years of active storms in the Atlantic.

In the devastation of 2005 the Hurricane Center found a silver lining. Its forecasts were among the most accurate in the history of weather predictions.

"Our forecast levels for 12 to 72 hours were at or near record accuracy levels," Knabb said.

The goal is to paint a consistent and reliable picture to the public, local weather bureaus and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, he said.

The information provided by the Hurricane Center goes out to all weather forecast offices in the world.

But the Miami-South Florida weather forecast office has an advantage if it needs clarification on any information sent out by the Hurricane Center.

It's in the same building.

"It is nice that we can talk face to face," said Rusty Pfost, chief meteorologist for the Miami-South Florida weather forecast office. "But they do a good job of communicating with everyone."

The Miami-South Florida weather forecast office forecasts the weather for Collier County. The Tampa office forecasts the weather for Lee County.

"We operate on a much smaller scale," Pfost said. "We're dealing with the weather in South Florida."

That includes brush fires, flash floods, tornadoes and other weather-related events.