Hurricane 2006: Depression No. 1 headed this way

South Lee County may get its first taste of the 2006 hurricane season, less than two weeks after the six-month-long period began.

The first tropical depression of the season formed Saturday in the northwestern Caribbean. Forecasters say the storm, which had sustained winds of 35 mph Saturday afternoon, could develop into Tropical Storm Alberto before making landfall on Florida’s west coast early this week.

With maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, it is just below the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm. It is moving at about 6 mph toward the Florida coast.

Should the storm make its way to south Lee County without hurricane force winds, it may do more good than harm for the region, which is just getting out of a very dry winter.

“Certainly we could use rainfall at this point,” said Kurt Harclerode, spokesman for the South Florida Water Management District. “A tropical system would give us rain that is good for the water supply.”

The National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Fort Myers on Monday or Tuesday.

The storm’s arrival isn’t yet threatening enough for Lee County Emergency Management to take action, though its officials have been in contact with the state about the situation.

Gerald Campbell, planning chief for Lee Emergency Management, said it looks like the storm will mainly mean rain for the area.

“We’re monitoring the weather, like everyone else,” he said.

Despite recent rains, Lee County is still about six to seven inches below average for this time of year, said Ryan Sharp, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Tampa office.

Through Friday, Fort Myers had received 8.3 inches of rain this year. The average is 14.6 inches, year-to-date.

The anticipated storm would help. Forecasts call for most of Florida’s west coast to receive four to eight inches of rain depending on the area, Sharp said.

Lee County is included in that prediction.

In addition to helping the ground water supply, it also would help lessen drought conditions, said Gerry LaCavera, wildfire mitigation specialist for the state Division of Forestry.

The Division of Forestry is already responding to three to 10 lightning wildfires a day, LaCavera said.

Drought numbers have dropped since rains began last week, but according to the Division of Forestry, much of Lee County remains around 600 on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. The index measures soil moisture on a scale of zero to 800, with the higher scores meaning it’s drier.

The storm would help a lot if it brings rain to the region, but if the area just gets lightning, it spells trouble, LaCavera said.

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, over the next three days the system is expected to move through the Yucatan channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall Monday or Tuesday.

South Florida residents shouldn’t be too concerned about this system, Danahey said, but should use it as a reminder to finish putting together hurricane kits and emergency plans for later in the hurricane season

Today’s forecast for South Florida calls for rain, thunderstorms and breezy conditions.

Meghan Danahey, a meteorologist with NBC-2, said South Florida residents can expect weather like Saturday’s for the next few days.

“I think we’ve seen our last sunshine until Wednesday,” Danahey said. “We’re only going to get more and more moisture in here as the system moves into the Gulf.”

The early start to the storm season is reminiscent of last year, when Tropical Storm Arlene formed on June 9, also in the western Caribbean.

Scientists have said this year’s season could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes, suggesting another active year but not the record pounding of 2005.

Last season was the busiest and most destructive in recorded history.

Hurricane Katrina alone devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths in Louisiana alone.

Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Collier County on Oct. 24 as a category 3 storm, killing 21 as it made its way though the state.

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Staff writers Ryan Mills and Anne Marie Apollo and the Associated Press contributed to this report