Phil Lewis: Immigration on the flip side

The press has been using nothing more than guesses the past few months when reporting on immigration.

During the massive marches of late April and early May, newspapers were estimating that 11 million people, most of them Hispanic, were living and working in the country illegally.

By early June the estimate had been kicked up a million. Stories now put the number at 12 million.

That seems to be the best number we can muster — our government's best guess.

The United States isn't the only country guessing about the number of immigrants, legal or otherwise, within its borders.

Mexico, it seems, doesn't know how many U.S. citizens are living in Mexico.

Apparently, there is some reverse immigration going on — some of it illegal or at least below the radar screen.

Bill Masterson, who writes for The People's Guide to Mexico, a Web site for U.S. citizens wanting to retire or seek business opportunities south of the border, has been researching the matter.

Estimates, he says, vary 10-fold.

The Mexican government officially puts the number American-Mexicans at 124,082.

The U.S. government estimates "more than 500,000." Recent research by a university professor in Mexico City claims there are 1 million Americans living in Mexico, 600,000 in and around Mexico City, the capital and one of the most populous cities in the world. If that's anywhere close to accurate, Mexico City is the largest U.S. expatriate community in the world.

Why the wide range in estimates?"For each American that does report him/herself to the American Consulant/embassy in Mexico, there are four or five Americans who do not report," Masterson was told.

Mexican immigration laws and regulations could be described as lax, at best.

But, Masterson reports, that will change.

Mexico has announced a national identity card program and the creation of a database to track the whereabouts of foreign nationals.

"It's fairly obvious that the number of Americans relocating to — or spending increased amounts of time in — Mexico is increasing yearly, and that the largest group of American migrants to Mexico are now seniors," Masterson wrote. "There are also likely to be an increasing number of Americans who relocate to Mexico — with their families — to pursue employment and/or business opportunities." One of those Americans made headlines on the West Coast this past week.

The Los Angeles Times last Sunday published a report on a woman who faces lawsuits and criminal charges in Mexico because of the muckraking her English-language newspaper has been doing in her adopted homeland.

"Readers of the English-language Gringo Gazette have learned about time-share hucksters, stolen deposits, flimsy contracts and other pitfalls that have tripped up Americans racing to grab a piece of Mexico's fast-growing Baja peninsula," the Times reported.

Nancy Conroy, the Gringo Gazette publisher, could go to prison in Mexico for what she's published. Mexico — to put it mildly — puts less value on "Freedom of the Press" than we do.

They're up front about it too.

Julio Mendivil, a spokesman for a development group that claims it was damaged by Conroy's reporting, told the Times:"The company is going to put her in jail and run her out of the country. We're going after her with everything we've got, whatever it costs." Might be a good time for American-Mexicans to organize a march.