Bird flu: Not a matter of 'if,' but 'when'

Officials say it's not a matter of "if" but "when" it gets here and after that, it's just a matter of "how" well you are prepared.

Schools will probably close.

The electricity may go out.

Medicines will be in short supply.

Water and food will be scarce.

There may be huge economic losses.

A hurricane? No, but many of the lessons learned from Charlie and Wilma will come in handy as south Floridians prepare for the avian or bird flu.

"Even with treatment some people are going to die," emergency preparation consultant Harper Simpson told the East Naples Civic Association, June 9. "You can put 50,000 of these viruses on the head of a pin, but it only takes about a hundred to infect someone."' Simpson, a consultant for the Florida Department of Health, said the H5N1 virus, better known as bird flu, is coming -one way or the other.

Officials of the World Health Organization as well as the Center for Disease Control are closely monitoring outbreaks of the flu around the world. It's already reached Europe and officials are hoping to pinpoint the precise place and time the virus mutates into a human-to-human pathogen.

From that moment, it'll be only about 30 days before the virus turns up in the U.S., and Florida, because of its accessibility and popularity as a resort destination, will likely be a prime target.

"Florida's moderate climate contributes to active lifestyles and attracts millions of visitors from all over the world," Simpson told the Citizen. "We are also home to many cruise ships, which provide a unique environment for the spread of specific pathogens." An epidemic occurs when a known virus causes frequent outbreaks of a disease in a limited geographical area. A pandemic occurs when a rare"novel," or new virus, spreads worldwide. Because it's new, humans have little or no immunity, and naturally, there aren't any vaccines.

Supplies of anti-virals like Tamiflu that help alleviate flu symptoms are limited, too. Florida has stockpiled only about 80,000 doses, which will be distributed to supply workers rather than first responders as was the policy in the past.

Three pandemics over the last century — the 1918 Spanish flu, the Asian flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed more than 600,000 people in the U.S. The Spanish flu alone was responsible for as many as 70 million deaths around the globe.

When it comes to pandemics, the U.S. is "overdue and under-prepared" according to Health and Human Services secretary Michael Leavitt.

Needing at least six months to develop a vaccine once mutation occurs, and with only two of eight research facilities left in America to do the work, the CDC expects millions may be directly affected by this strain of flu.

The good news according to Simpson, is that by changing some of our everyday behaviors, we may be able to slightly lower the risk of becoming infected.

"It appears this virus likes to get really deep into the lungs," explained Simpson. "Since it's not an airborne virus-it's spread by droplets like those produced when you cough or sneeze-people may be somewhat protected by not getting close to an infected person." Simpson told the group to practice keeping "social distance" by staying three feet away from sick people; always use a tissue or cover coughs and sneezes with a sleeve rather than a hand to prevent the spread of disease; and to be sure to get an annual flu shot.

He added thorough hand washing with soap and water should be a part of everyone's daily routine and said people should stay home if they start to cough or sneeze.

"Americans have a tendency to go to work even if they don't feel well," said Simpson. "Don't. Stay home." But Simpson warned ENCA members to be doubly vigilant.

"When you hear this has gone human-to-human, quit shaking hands, don't come to meetings like this and make sure you're well-stocked with food, medicine, supplies and water -lots of it," he advised. "This cuts across all groups regardless of age or social status." The health department predicts about 30 to 50 percent of the workforce will be will be out sick or tending to a sick family member. Bird flu has already demonstrated a 50 percent mortality rate in humans due mostly to dehydration and pneumonia.

"People should get used to words like 'isolation' and 'quarantine,'" said Simpson. "Isolating a community could be a good thing if it keeps healthy people from standing in line with sick ones."