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WOMEN, WISDOM & WEALTH: Who bails out for us?
Be calm, be aware
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Do you remember the childhood game of “pick up sticks” with those brightly colored plastic sticks stored in a tubular container? The way everything is so interconnected with recent financial events conjured up a picture in my mind of those sticks scattered all over the top of our kitchen table.
The goal of the game is to remove one of the sticks without disturbing the others. If you move a stick other than the one you intended to, your turn is over. He or she who collects the most sticks wins. It’s designed to teach patience and concentration.
Do you see a similarity between the financial markets that fell off a cliff Sept. 29 and the game of pick-up-sticks? On that particular day the Dow Jones Industrial Average (an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks) closed at 10,365.45 — down 777.68 points, or 6.98 percent, from the previous Friday’s close. The drop occurred after the House of Representatives unexpectedly rejected a proposed $700 billion package designed to relieve the financial industry of its troubled mortgage-related debt.
As an employee of a very conservative — thank goodness — and strong investment firm, anything that I put forth for public consumption must be reviewed by our compliance department. Because of this, there’s a time lag between when I write a column and when it appears in the paper. Anything may have happened since the time I wrote this so please forgive me if the relevance has diminished.
Despite the Sept. 29 market plunge, in all likelihood it won’t replace the “Black Monday” of October 19, 1987, when the Dow lost more than 22 percent of its value. The market was back up on the following day.
Other widely followed indices fell spectacularly Sep. 29, as well. The S&P 500 (an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks) fell 106.59 points, off 8.79 percent, to 1,106.39 while the NASDAQ composite (an unmanaged index of common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market) dropped 199.61 points, or 9.14 percent, to 1,983.73.
To add to the gloom, yet another large bank was broken up as Citigroup agreed to take over the banking operations of Wachovia for $2.2 billion. That happened just days after Washington Mutual collapsed and was gathered up by JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion.
The redrawing of the American financial landscape continues, and experts tend to agree that several smaller banks are likely to need rescuing. Most banks that either failed or were swallowed up found themselves in trouble because they were heavily exposed to mortgage-related investments.
Right or wrong, Wall Street was shocked by the failure of the bailout bill in the form submitted. The bill was designed to let the government buy up bad and suspect debt from troubled financial institutions.
After more than a week of debate, meetings and political compromises, Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle thought that their bipartisan approach would bring House passage.
Confidence is an influential factor when determining market value. When confidence is shaken badly, as it has been this past year and especially over the past few weeks, the only solution is to restore it. The bailout measure was designed to do that. While it was defeated Sept. 29, it seems likely to somehow be resurrected. Word is that the House will reconvene in the future to try again.
Those of us with a long-term horizon can keep a watchful eye on the situation and avoid hasty moves during this fluid and dynamic time. No one knows how deep the lack of confidence and financial industry troubles will drive the markets, but, historically, such black periods — sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly — have been wiped away by a subsequent restoration of confidence and, with it, value.
If you have questions about the state of the financial services industry, the meaning of the bailout package, or would like to discuss how your portfolio and specific investments are faring, please feel free to contact me. Be calm, be aware.
Darcie Guerin is a financial adviser and branch manager at Raymond James & Associates Inc. at 606 Bald Eagle Drive, suite 401, Marco Island. Contact her at Darcie.Guerin@raymondjames.com, 389-1041 or toll-free (866) 343-0882.

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