2012 Hurricane Season
The Storm Warn 7 Hurricane Team will continue tracking "Invest 91" over the weekend, which is a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Bahama Islands and western Atlantic Ocean.
This cluster of convection is moving northwest between 5 to 10 mph. This could move into a favorable area for tropical development within the next 24 hours.
However, it would have to get strong enough to become "Florence" before making landfall early Saturday evening near Fort Pierce.
The Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance of becoming a tropical storm before landfall.
The compromise of the computer models takes the storm near Orlando, then toward the panhandle of Florida by Sunday evening.
Whatever happens with this system, Southwest Florida will be on the "dry" side of the storm. We will only see a minimal increase in our afternoon shower & thunderstorm activity.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is now in the eastern Caribbean Sea. As of 5 p.m. Friday, the storm had 50 MPH maximum winds and is moving to the west at 21 mph.
The track of the storm should stay south of all of the islands of the northern Caribbean Sea, but track toward the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico by the middle of next week.
Be sure to watch ABC7 News this weekend for any new developments on these storms.
If you would like Social Media updates from the National Hurricane Center on Ernesto as they're issued, you can "like" my Facebook page at www.facebook.com/jpweather or follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/jpweather.